Giorgia Meloni and Ursula von der Leyen, the double act that is steering the EU ever rightwards | Simon Tisdall

IIt is rare for an Italian prime minister to top the table in Europe. But after Germany’s Olaf Scholz and France’s Emmanuel Macron both faced red cards at home, Spain’s Pedro Sanchez was briefly stretched and replaced by Rishi Sunak, who sulked on the bench like Liverpool’s Mo Salah. Georgia Meloni – a post-fascist poster girl turned star center forward of the New Right – fired into an open door.

This is Meloni’s moment. In the words of one conservative commentator, it has become “The main leader of Europe“. And its influence is expected to expand next month, when up to 450 million voters in 27 countries take the plunge new EU parliament. Hard-right and far-right nationalist-populist parties, including Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, are poised for huge gains at the expense of the left and the Greens.

Meloni has surprised her opponents by becoming Prime Minister in 2022. Instead of disrupting or leaving the EU, she seems very keen to launch it. Most telling is her co-opting of Ursula von der Leyen, the less-than-stellar president of the European Commission, who yearns for an undeserved second five-year term. Von der Leyen began following Meloni around, often visiting Italy to taunt her.

That’s because Meloni’s support could be crucial when national leaders (not voters) pick the next committee chief. It’s also because Meloni got up fundamental to shaping Europe’s agenda – particularly on migration and climate – and the management of troublemakers such as Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. Its growing influence is helping to shift the EU’s center of gravity ever to the right.

Speaking at the candidates’ debate last week, von der Leyen criticized the far-right parliamentary group Identity and Democracy, which includes Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD), France’s National Rally (RN) (formerly National Front) and Italy’s League. Marine Le Pen, the National Rally leader, accused Meloni and von der Leyen of conspiring to secure the latter’s re-election.

The bad blood was evident as the commission’s president claimed that far-right parties were acting as the “proxy” of the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, parroting his “lies and propaganda.” Still, it opened the door to future collaboration with a rival hard-right group that includes the Meloni brothers.

The phenomenon of two empowered women running European affairs (there used to be just one, Angela Merkel) was on display last year when Meloni helped von der Leyen seal a controversial migration deal with Tunisia. She was available again in March when The EU gave 7.4 billion euros (£6.3 billion) to Egypt’s brutal dictator Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, partly to curb migrant flows. Meloni’s idea, adopted by von der Leyen, is to keep migrants away from Europe’s borders – a radical break with previous EU asylum and refugee settlement policies.

Meloni also successfully lobbied Brussels for watered down the EU’s green deal. Like migration, climate is a frightening issue among the denialist right. Unsurprisingly, given the Tories’ recent backsliding, Meloni got a warm welcome from Sunak in Downing Street last year.

The European political establishment looks set for a right-wing kick next month. In France, Le Pen’s RN, led by Jordan Bardella, a handsome talker like Macron, only younger, has a huge lead. The scandal with the AfD in Germany is growing – and tripping Scholz and his Social Democrats are hopelessly off the pace. If he had been a horse and not a chancellor, Scholz would have been humanely put to sleep.

No wonder von der Leyen is turning right. The German conservative has the support, albeit tepid, of the parliament’s dominant center-right European People’s Party. Critics accuse her of serious mistakes because of the pandemic, the war in Gaza, the alleged nepotism – and the arrogant behavior. While she tends to win in a weak field, she needs the momentum that Meloni, riding the crest of a right wave, can provide.

Meloni herself comes with considerable baggage, not least her fierce Euroscepticism. In office, she demanded constitutional changes to strengthen her executive powers and led attacks on migrant rescue organizations, LGBTQ+ groups and media freedom. The brothers adore Donald Trump.

Add to that Italy’s relative economic weakness and notorious political instability, and Meloni is clearly punching above his weight. Observers suggest that she has been “normalized” into the European mainstream, distancing herself from Moscow and supporting NATO and EU aid to Ukraine. It also cut Italy’s deals with China – and it helped mend fences with Orbán.

Still, questions remain about Meloni’s direction — and reliability. In one scenario, it becomes a unifying standard-bearer for the right, encompassing parties across the spectrum from Germany’s staunch Christian Democrats to the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders and the wilder Finnish fringes. Yet what if Trump, pro-Russian and anti-European, wins? What if Putin did? Can he change his position again?

An alternative scenario that could give a boost to the beleaguered social democratic and socialist left is Meloni’s final break with the ultra-nationalist, populist far-right, mainly over attitudes to the EU.

Her relationship with von der Leyen suggests that this is already happening. That’s the view of her controversial deputy and leader of the League party, Matteo Salviniand Le Pen.

Speaking via video at a conference in Rome organized by Salvini in March, Le Pen asked: “Georgia…will you support a second term for von der Leyen or not?” I believe so. And so you will contribute to the deterioration of the policies from which the people of Europe suffer so much. It was a pointed trench. But Le Pen has a problem. After Brexit, she no longer talks about leaving the EU. As for Salvini, he is increasingly overshadowed by Meloni.

Potentially beneficial right-wing splits aside, the long-term combination of an ambitious, slippery Meloni and a dependent, needy von der Leyen is potentially dangerous for Europe. This opportunistic double act could drag the EU deep into an ideological quagmire, lacking practical, consensual responses to pressing challenges.

Ursula and Georgia: has a familiar ring to it. Like Thelma and Louise, driving off a cliff.